Baseball math · pennant race
Magic Number
How close is clinched?
The magic number is any combination of your wins and the chaser's losses that clinches the division. When it hits zero, pop the champagne.
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Magic number
10
Any 10 between your wins and their losses clinches it.
MN = G + 1 − Wyou − Lchaser
G is the season length, W is the leader's win total, and L is the losses of the team chasing. The +1 is what makes a tie safe — you only need the chaser to be unable to catch you, not to beat them again.